The Charts (Technical Analysis)
As of our last analysis we saw that big green candle moving us nearly up to 1.0. We have since corrected back to 0.6. The market currently has a floor around 0.45 that has not been broken yet. If that floor breaks there is no real saying where we could bottom out at. We are in a descending triangle that leads to 0.00. Descending triangles are usually bullish patterns and don't tend to play out to their bottoms. The positive news is that this pattern resolves itself by the end of January, so if we're in for a hard fall here, it should come quickly before we're out of it. However the .45 floor could hold, which would get us out of this pattern by the 19th.
We've seen the most consistent volume on the smoke market over the past few days than we've seen in it's history. Consistent volume is good for a market and a positive sign for growth. New bitshares are being traded into the market, increasing the total amount of liquidity.
The order books are telling us a nice story week by week. As we can see the sell side is still very thin leading up to 1.0, so a push back up to that area would not at all be surprising. We can see a lot of liquidity building up on the buy side of the books. We see fat falls at .4 and .27. This gives us a hint that these areas could provide support should the .45 level break through. However, books should generally not be used as a way to predict price because orders can easily be pulled and moved around.
I think if we see downside in bitcoin, we could see general market fear that panics people into taking what buy liquidity there is for smoke, however, that may not happen for a bit. I think a more likely scenario is that while BTC continues it's dead cat bounce move we will see Smoke range more in this area, possibly making new local highs. I expect volatility to remain high and price to range drastically.